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Against the Current

11/9/2020

 

source: tradingeconomics.com
Current account quantifies a country's exchange of goods and services with the world.  The formula is CA = (exports - imports) + net income abroad + net income transfers.  Yes, I'm aware order of operations doesn't call for the parentheses but sometimes being redundant helps an explanation.

Net income abroad is investment payments and income transfers include remittances.  Forex, anyone?   It's typically cyclical and the plague certainly had at least something to do with trade.  A positive current account means Japan is lending while a negative current account means the US is a net borrower.  It's not permanent, however, as growing economies tend to borrow more (hopefully temporarily) to accelerate that growth.

Is there a correlation to be made between corporate trade and personal spending habits?  Maybe.  There does not appear to be causation, though.

Japan has a tradition of saving and then saving some more.  This is appropriate behavior for a country whose banking system offers 100 year mortgages, puts three generations in one house, and effectively makes that property the first item in the will.

Cool robots that solve problems we did not know we had and toilets that solve problems in ways we did not know we could embrace come from the mystical land in part to stimulate the economy organically by encouraging frugal households to spend some of that money.

source: tradingeconomics.com
We don't need the X axis on the second chart to know what month and year that spike in US personal savings represents or even why it's there.  The yen has gotten stronger over that three year period as Japan's current account has remained positive.  USDJPY is currently trading at 104.919
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Perhaps we're more connected than we care to acknowledge and there are seemingly infinite ways to quantify it.
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