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Watch GBPUSD12/20/2020 Images: Serena Repice Lentini on Unsplash
With plague vaccines rolling out, no-deal Brexit in a few weeks, and UK lockdowns becoming even more restrictive, GBP still managed to strengthen against USD since April. January through June will be wild fundamentally. If you want action, seek out this pair supported by fighting best friends with a common language and dispute for what is proper football. It's the one that requires everyone's feet on the pitch to touch the ball. GBPUSD will open at 1.352 today.
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Tesla Says Hello12/20/2020 Image: Vlad Tchompalov on Unsplash
Tesla ($TSLA) was named to the S&P 500 and will make its debut tomorrow. Getting listed on the index with the other large market capital companies is important because many institutions gauge S&P's performance and align it with the market outlook. Tesla is probably also excited about its debt rating on its way to BBB-, the first level of investment grade bond ratings. Elon has had a huge year and so have many of his tech colleagues. The internet services and social media industry is up 41.88% YTD and the computer processing and cloud services people are up 38.37% YTD. Did you notice it was difficult to get a decent microphone for a few months when the plague started? Don't forget about bitcoin. $TSLA will open tomorrow at 695.00 USD.
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Not Cool12/13/2020 Image: Jay Wennington on Unsplash
We've been following the New York City restaurants story. Last autumn we wrote about a heat lamp shortage as restaurants scrambled to adjust to outdoor eating requirements. With Governor Cuomo's order banning indoor dining tomorrow, residents flocked to restaurants to get it in one last time. On this week's episode, we discussed the crushing burden of regulations and how the small business takes it on the chin every time. Some believe it's a good thing Olive Garden's bread rolls will still be around as larger companies have the capital to absorb the blow.
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Container Space12/13/2020 Image: Dylan McLeod on Unsplash
The no deal Brexit is causing other problems. Traders may lose faith quickly and send the sterling on an unfavorable ride until things settle when January comes around and everyone realizes it's not ever really that cold in England this time of year. Incomplete containers are leaving London in an effort to keep time slots. They've endured delays all year because of the plague and now companies are stockpiling. Customs delays will increase and tariffs between UK and EU are expected to return. The natural reaction is to increase container rates. Shanghai to Felixtowe (Suffolk, England) is now at 3,000 USD per container. The route started 2020 at 2,200 USD. GBPCNY opens at 8.66 today.
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Needles and Crude12/6/2020 Image: Christopher Burns on Unsplash
The recent vaccine news and encouraging public sentiment occurred in the period as the OPEC negotiations. 500,000 barrels per day of the sweet stuff will start in January. Optimism for a recovering economy and people driving to jobs to use loud machines has spurred oil price activity. WTI Crude was 37.14 USD on November 6 and will open tomorrow at 46.09 USD. Rising oil prices means rising demand means more independence. Let's get this thing going again.
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Hammer Drops12/6/2020 Images: Denise Jans on Unsplash
WarnerMedia, owned by AT&T ($T), announced last week their straight-to-stream model with HBO Max. AMC Theaters said it was nice knowing everyone, bought a lime green VW Beetle, and set off to find the meaning of... anything. For longtime Netflix ($NFLX) subscribers, this is cause for concern. Straight-to-stream "blockbusters" have mostly been a waste of everyone's time excluding the film set catering companies. Marco Polo (200mm USD), The Ridiculous 6 (Adam Sandler still?), and Bright were all disasters. Anything that's good is because of the writing and not the production value though Peaky Blinders was great until the crash of '29. Does this mean we should get ready for green screen butchering? Studios have to make up for the instant cash flow represented by their former partners in giant movie complexes and controlling fire is expensive. Subscription models make it difficult to justify massive budgets like Game of Thrones and Rome on HBO. Many just look like Threat Level Midnight, though. Perhaps the best product to come from the plague regarding entertainment will be refocusing efforts on screenplay writing. They remade Ghostbusters for crying out loud. $T will open at 29.54 USD and $NFLX at 498.31 USD tomorrow.
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Europeans Still Spending12/6/2020 Image: Nick Karvounis on Unsplash
Euro area retail spending is up 4.2% from October 2019 to October 2020. From September 2020 to October 2020, Denmark (+8.3%) and Croatia (+6.5%) are well ahead of Netherlands (-0.7%) and Luxembourg (-0.3). With Christmas season upon us and people desperate to do something, anything, that doesn't involve the television, a busier economy is sorely needed. EURGBP opens at 0.901 today.
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Factory Orders Up12/6/2020 Image: Daniel Wiadro on Unsplash
US factory orders were up 1% in October, continuing a growth streak (recovery, rather) since May 2020. With new machine orders down 0.3%, sticking with maintaining old machinery and getting everything out of already owned assets while the economy is still uncertain seems to be the smart play. For some, holding onto the spouse and pumping in preventative maintenance costs is less expensive than getting a new one. |